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Post by HeadMarshal on Jun 28, 2016 20:05:42 GMT -5
I would imagine most of us can recall times when AMW was on the air when there was a time period of two weeks or more without any direct captures as a result of the show or the website. This is what I call a "capture drought" and I wanted to reference a few of them courtesy of the capture list we have on the forum and try to figure out why they happened.
July 25-August 13, 2004: July 25 is when Timothy Berner (#804) was located thanks to tips and it took until August 13 for Donald Crosby (#805) to be taken into custody as well. This made 19 days without a single direct capture. What made this even worse is that it was immediately followed by the next example.
August 13-September 20, 2004: It took 38 DAYS before Rason Horton became (#806). It's agreed upon that the latter half of 2004 wasn't done that well by AMW compared to many other years on the air, but it's weird to have that many days without a single direct capture.
July 12-August 9, 2007: It took 28 days from when Jose Cazares became (#954) till when Javier Sandoval-Flores became (#955).
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Post by Scumhunter on Jun 29, 2016 4:41:14 GMT -5
I know this sounds like a cop-out but I don't really think there is a rhyme or reason to it. Just things happen in spurts. This is why it concerned me when I learned The Hunt was only going to do 1-2 fugitives an episode, although they've been pretty successful so far.
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Post by pakman on Jul 3, 2016 14:34:14 GMT -5
2004 had really, really bad capture droughts.
There was also almost a month between captures when Boris Graham (Capture #778) and Scott Hayden (Capture #779) were caught. Graham was caught January 28, 2004. Hayden was caught February 21, 2004. To make matters worse, Graham, for some reason, wasn't counted as a direct capture until the week Hayden was caught, so the drought seemed even longer.
The longest one I can think of was from March 2003 to May 2003. There were ZERO direct captures in April 2003. That meant, from the time Michael Seibert was caught on March 26, 2003 to the time of Roger Holbrook's grab on May 17, 2003, there was a dry spell. There were also only three indirect captures that month. At least other dry spells tended to have indirect captures.
There was an entire month between captures from June 2003 to July 2003; Edward Santana was caught on June 19, 2003 and Arthur Kanev wasn't nabbed until July 24, 2003.
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Post by 912thamwuser on Jul 3, 2016 16:33:57 GMT -5
I can still remember wanted dog fighters Darryl Eugene Jones and Marlin Terrell "Bulldog" Mitchell (#965/#966) surrendered in mid or late October 2007, then there were no direct captures in nearly ALL of November 2007 except the last 5 days, when Dagoberto M Gamez (#967) was busted November 26, and Anatoliy "Tolik" Valenko (#968) was busted in the next 4 days. This is, of course, attributable to CrimeWire temporarily replacing the 15 Seconds of Shame. Most CrimeWire fugitives were already in custody before AMW could get those cases on the air.
David Allen Andrews (#972) was busted on January 5, 2008, and around that time, Robert Martin Falkner was marked as capture #973. For the rest of January, nothing. It took until February 2 to bust Esther Elizabeth Reed as #974.
David Peter Wheatley was busted the day before Independence Day 2008 as #1021, but it took most of the month before Don Leo Cox Fritzche could be busted as #1022.
After Ricardo Juan Rivera-Torres was busted as #1056 in the second half of January 2009, it took over a half month before Wesley Evans Williams was busted as #1057 on 2-13-009, and a few more days to take credit. From there, it was a couple weeks before Darak Antonio P Williams and Kashema Reddish were busted as #1058/#1059 in early-to-mid March 2009.
After Michael and Teven David Collins were busted as #1063/#1064 on 3-25-009, it took 2 or 3 weeks before the captures of Anthony James Eason as #1065, and Jeffrey Czechonna Miles and Anita Kay Vestal as #1066/#1067. From there, it was nearly a whole month before Juan Morales Jauregui, the only direct capture of May 2009, went down as #1068 on the 14th. More than 2 weeks passed before Ivan Javier "Duck, Plato, Ivan the Terrible" Alvarado was busted as #1069.
Kisha "Key" Marie Rutledge was busted as #1088 on 8-26-009, and it took over 1/2 month before Chad Earl Schaffner could be busted as #1089, and it took all the rest of September before Joseph William Gossett was busted as #1090 on 10-01-009. Nearly 3 weeks passed before Heather Uboh was busted by mere coincidence as #1091 on October 20 or 21, 2009, then another 2/3 month before Blaine Smith was busted as #1092 in mid-November.
These are just the many from Autumn 2007 to Autumn 2009, and I might come back to '010 later.
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Post by Scumhunter on Jul 3, 2016 18:35:44 GMT -5
Although not as bad as others, I remember the capture drought between September 4th, 2012 and October 11th, 2012 (Jonathan May to Mario Hernandez 1197-1998) was extremely frustrating because AMW was near 1200 captures and it seemed like it was going to take forever to get that milestone. Little did we know that show would soon be cancelled after it finally hit 1200. (It's theoretical we might not have never seen that number if not for the Reardon and other captures).
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Post by ninja108 on May 13, 2017 10:46:17 GMT -5
In 2002 after Joseph Safrany #722 turned himself in on September 19th, there weren't any captures for nearly another month when Esat Bici's (#723) body was identified in Mexico after karma paid him a visit on October 12th.
There again would be a capture drought of nearly a month but starting with Thomas McCray#724 on Nov 3rd, there would be 12 captures before November ended so that made up for it.
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