Post by тσρтєиhυитєя on Apr 9, 2016 0:25:17 GMT -5
Now that scumhunter and myself's top candidate has been captured it's time to see who takes the "Brenda Delgado slot" and it will most likely be Bhadreshkumar Patel and he'll be placed much quicker since the 1 year anniversary is coming up soon if not caught. Leprinceton Burks is likely to be in the states, and the list needs a crimes against children case for a change soon. Domingo Maye could be another potential crimes against children case to make the Top ten list. Now my wild cards will be women: Shadia Muse and Ashley Montalvo. I picked women because they bring in a lot of attention to the list but the problem is they lack Brenda Delgado's being of a media sensation and also her crime being somewhat unique and how people said how she was cute or made fun of her possessiveness but also keeping the seriousness of the situation. Shadia Muse on the other hand did something that is considered taboo to most people and It will be very serious if she's added and for this reason she may be the easiest to find unless I'm wrong. Ashley Montalvo comes in first because her crime fits the bill for the list since they held a family hostage during a home invasion and she helped which kinda reminds me of Delgado who didn't do anything directly but had some responsibility. but the flaw is she is on the run with her accomplice Ulises Felix... So it'll be tough to add them both with the current state of the list so they'll probably add one or the other.
Post by 912thamwuser on Apr 9, 2016 2:07:40 GMT -5
About Shadia Mahamed Muse: I remember one talking about how badly Somalian culture treats certain women. I believe they said that about women who get pregnant out of wedlock. That raises the question: When you said "taboo", did you mean getting pregnant out of wedlock? Or leaving her newborn to die in a car trunk? I know it's probably the latter, but I want to make sure.
DD12: Esnel Jean, Jorge Walter Nunez-Paz, Alexis Flores, Juan Laureano-Arvizu, Tomas Magallon Gonzalez, Orson William Black, Frederick Cecil McLean, Jose Ramon Reyes-Sanchez, Emmanuel Polanco Vanderhorst, Taizhi Cui, Tyrom Walter Theis, Fernando Palomino. PE #1: Yaser Abdel Said
Post by тσρтєиhυитєя on Apr 9, 2016 9:19:15 GMT -5
Well I was basically talking about both, because I did read that same thing too about Somalian culture aspect of the Shadia Muse case and also the fact that the victim was a newborn and she could have reported it but instead she fled making it seem she did it on purpose, but I know Shadia Muse was just an immature teenager at the time she was 18 or 19 and now that she's in her early 30s she's probably changed, but she needs to be brought back to clear this up.
Post by тσρтєиhυитєя on Apr 9, 2016 15:25:41 GMT -5
Oh yes I agree. That's why I personally I'm leaning towards the Fbi adding Bhradeshkumar Patel who has been wanted since last April, his crime is very brutal and national attention would bring him in and they can flush him out quicker. Crimes against children fugitives Leprinceton Burks and Domingo Maye are recent as they both happened in 2015 as well.
I feel it's kind of similar to the Myloh Mason case- perhaps too similar? I guess we'll see. Once again, we now have the guessing game of when the FBI will update the list- which theoeretically can now take until next March. I don't think it will take that long, but ya never know.
Last Edit: Apr 13, 2016 8:10:09 GMT -5 by Scumhunter
Post by тσρтєиhυитєя on Apr 13, 2016 8:17:12 GMT -5
Oh yes he is so shockingly similar to Myloh Mason, a series of armed robberies and with the "Brenda Delgado slot" open I do think he's likely unless he's caught soon. Personally I feel Zavala could make the list in a couple of weeks if he's not captured depending on how serious he actually is. Personally I lowered Patel and Leprinceton Burks down to 2nd and 3rd. Also there is a good thing to being right on the best prediction (Brenda Delgado) but at the same time if it's a quick capture, the process then starts all over again. I want the FBI to make up for 2015 first off and they are doing fairly well with 1 slot (2 captures in 4 months), as well as make up for the 6 years of Semion Mogilevich.
I also think it's important to not assume just because someone's added to the site means they will be a top ten contender, the FBI adds at least one or two fugitives a week because they're looking for them or someone requested they handle the case, not because they are "top list contenders". In the next few weeks, we'll likely see one guy or girl added a week not all of them will be contenders. But it's fair to assume in Zavala's case since his crimes are similar to Mason's.
The way it usually works is all the field offices submit a candidate and the FBI chooses from the list. (Unless it's a breaking news case like Adam Mayes/Eric Frein, technically Myloh Mason and Brenda Delgado fall into that category as well). So a lot depends on who the field offices want to nominate rather than who's the most recent person the FBI added to their website.
Last Edit: Apr 13, 2016 8:22:08 GMT -5 by Scumhunter
Post by тσρтєиhυитєя on Apr 13, 2016 8:27:44 GMT -5
Oh yes I hear ya. Now this Daniel Zavala guy isn't wanted on any Murder or attempted murder charges so I'll bring Patel back to 1st. Now I know you pointed this out but adding recent fugitives actually is paying off. The FBI already has 2 captures as of now and I hope they work hard to add easy to catch fugitives, but Bhadreshkumar Patel has already had his reward increased from $10,000-$20,000 so that gives an indication he's next. The problem I see is how long he'll be on the list before he's captured or if he'll stay on the list till 2017 or more years to come.
I know the FBI will hopefully lean towards more recent fugitives but there's still a pool of relatively recent fugitives from all the field offices to choose from, not all added to the site this year and not all will be listed on their website. (Juan Elias Garcia was never listed on the FBI's website before he was added 4 years after his alleged crime).
Last Edit: Apr 13, 2016 8:29:43 GMT -5 by Scumhunter
Post by тσρтєиhυитєя on Apr 13, 2016 8:34:12 GMT -5
You bring up a good point... Many fugitives the FBI seeks are not on the site, I'll call the non-site fugitives as outsiders, but those outsiders have a 60/100 chance of making it. Patel and Burks are the only true site fugitives I have as candidates. Now the FBI always does something like this but perhaps they feel happy about the Success of the Delgado Capture that they'll add another woman, likely being Ashley Montalvo, now I know she's on the run with Ulises Felix, but I feel if they add her they'll flush her and Felix out.
Post by тσρтєиhυитєя on Apr 24, 2016 0:57:51 GMT -5
Okay so here is my list candidates that will potentially be the 507th fugitive (wow) and Replace Brenda Delgado. Now
•Bhadreshkumar Chetanbhai Patel
ADDITIONAL VIOLENT CRIMES:
•Ashley Montalvo or Ulises Felix
•Daniel Jordan Zavala
•Jerome Nathaniel Holloway
•Christopher Ray Roberts
CRIMES AGAINST CHILDREN:
•Leprinceton Dewon Burks
•Juan Paulino Cantero
•Tyrone Smith- seeking information fugitive
•Michael James Keitz- known bank robber
Now I don't know any off site fugitives that have potential of making it on since my brain is else where. Now Michael Keitz and Tyrone Smith are my wild cards since they are both recent cases and since a seeking information fugitive and a plain bank robber haven't been added in recent years if I am correct. Keitz also disappeared the same way Brown did, on a bicycle
I sincerely doubt Michael James Keitz, Jerome Holloway and/or Tyrone Smith would be candidates. Smith has too little information on him, and while not excusing it, no one has been harmed in Keitz's robbery spree (Myloh Mason's robbery spree included attempted murder). The FBI's list used to be a lot of bank robbers, but that has changed over time for fugitives who have killed people.
Hollway is only wanted for illegal possession of a firearm. Unless there's other charges we don't know about, he's not going to get added. I do agree the more recently added a fugitive, the more likely they are to get added, but I once again stress let's not consider EVERY fugitive the FBI adds to their website a candidate and take the seriousness of their crimes into account as well. Not that illegal possession of a firearm isn't a serious crime, but for a top 10 list, it's small potatoes. It would be possibly be the worst addition in history if he got added for only that. (Even if he got caught off of it, it would still possibly be the worst).
Last Edit: Apr 24, 2016 7:16:57 GMT -5 by Scumhunter
Post by тσρтєиhυитєя on Apr 24, 2016 10:05:10 GMT -5
Yeah your right, the only ones that have a good chance at being added are Murderers and child molestors and sex traffickers that are on or not on the FBI site. This time around however I'm going to let Director Comey take his time to pick the new candidate. After 2 great additions Myloh Mason and Brenda Delgado I see that giving it time does pay off.