Post by Scumhunter on Mar 29, 2015 13:51:49 GMT -5
On these list prediction threads, I have a habit of sometimes against better instinct- playing it safe- of who SHOULD have the best odds of capture. Although it's become a broken record with Jason Derek Brown on the FBI's Top 10 List. So of the ones listed (of course there will be new ones added soon, hopefully, at least, but I know this thread is about who's next right now), Corey Gaston SHOULD be the easiest capture and most likely. He's recent, not exactly a criminal mastermind- he dropped his cell phone at the scene of the crime- and is likely still in the states. Cameron "Woo" Taylor learned you can only depend on home cooking for so long.
However, there have been other guys like Timothy Marino who stupidly videotapes his alleged rape that have defied expectations.
Who saw Vincent Walters capture coming in 2012? Who saw Randy Yager's coming last year?
So my prediction is Corey Gaston, but only because I'm playing it safe.
Last Edit: Mar 29, 2015 13:53:15 GMT -5 by Scumhunter
Post by HeadMarshal on Mar 29, 2015 16:51:47 GMT -5
I voted for Corey Gaston because in theory he should be the easiest fugitive to locate. Likely in the US but if he fled to Mexico then a black fugitive would not blend in well there. He could also get arrested for raping another child (predatory child rapists/molesters aren't going to quit their ways). However if he's working as a truck driver, then it would explain why he's been able to remain undetected for so long.
While the Marshals have been cleaning up their additions since 2011, they have quite the crop of long-runners on their remaining "9 most wanted" list. I'm a little surprised Gaston has lasted this long, but perhaps he is indeed transient. I also thought Robert King would be apprehended quickly, but there has been speculation that he drastically altered his appearance, so maybe that has something to do with it. As for picking a fugitive that will be next to "go down," I have no clue. Any one of the remaining nine could be next.
Post by 912thamwuser on Mar 29, 2015 19:40:36 GMT -5
For some reason, because of his The Hunt With John Walsh airing, I think it'll be Frederick Cecil McLean. Part of me wants to think The Hunt is speeding up the manhunt.
I've been thinking of the 6 vacancies a little more, and I'm starting to wonder not when, but if, the US Marshals will fill them. If anyone (not necessarily a member of this forum) wanted to contact the US Marshals to make sure the 15 Most Wanted List hasn't been abandoned, could (s)he?
DD12: Esnel Jean, Jorge Walter Nunez-Paz, Alexis Flores, Juan Laureano-Arvizu, Tomas Magallon Gonzalez, Orson William Black, Frederick Cecil McLean, Jose Ramon Reyes-Sanchez, Emmanuel Polanco Vanderhorst, Taizhi Cui, Tyrom Walter Theis, Fernando Palomino. PE #1: Yaser Abdel Said
Post by Scumhunter on Mar 29, 2015 19:54:45 GMT -5
I'm sure they could e-mail the Marshals but we have seen them take long hiatuses on their 15 Most Wanted list before. I think when they added Kevin Stoeser they had went a good six or seven months before an addition. Last year, I think they had Victor Barnard, Peter Castillo, and Tam Minh Lee all added within a 2-3 month span at the end. So it's all at once or little by little sometimes it seen. It took the FBI almost a year to replace Bin Laden with Eric Toth on their top 10 list. I wouldn't worry about them not adding names unless a year goes by and there's still not a new addition. Of course, you hope it doesn't take that long for a new addition. The list, however, is said to expand resources the Marshals don't otherwise have, although I don't know what those resources are. So one would think they do need the list to get some of their worst cases and wouldn't abandon it.
Last Edit: Mar 29, 2015 20:01:47 GMT -5 by Scumhunter