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Post by HeadMarshal on Jan 26, 2013 21:16:06 GMT -5
The FBI has much reason to be successful regarding it's Top Ten List program, the near majority of the 497 fugitives added to the list have been apprehended or found deceased since 1950. Despite this, it appears that the bulk of the fugitive apprehensions went on in the first two decades of the program (By the end of 1969, the FBI was already at Fugitive #304). Not only that, but as I will show everyone below, the fugitives are remaining on the list longer, and that's not a good sign. I won't mention the fugitive names until the 1990s as we aren't that familiar with the fugitives until America's Most Wanted premired in 1988. FBI List End Of 1969 (Fugitives By Time On The List) Less Than A Year: (5) One To Four Years: (4) en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FBI_Ten_Most_Wanted_Fugitives,_1960s FBI List End Of 1979 Less Than A Year: (4) One To Four Years: (4) Five To Nine Years: (1) 10 To 14 Years: (1) en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FBI_Ten_Most_Wanted_Fugitives,_1970s FBI List End Of 1989 Less Than A Year: (4) One To Four Years: (2) Five To Nine Years: (2) 10 To 14 Years: (1) en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FBI_Ten_Most_Wanted_Fugitives,_1980s NOTE: The End Of The Decade mention forgets about Victor Manuel Gerena. FBI List End Of 1999 Less Than A Year (3): James "Whitey" Bulger, Osama Bin Laden, James Charles Kopp One To Four Years (4): Eric Rudolph, Ramon Arellano-Felix, Glen Godwin, Agustin Vasquez Mendoza 10 To 14 Years (1): Arthur Lee Washington 15 To 19 Years (2): Donald Eugene Webb, Victor Gerena en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FBI_Ten_Most_Wanted_Fugitives,_1990s FBI List End Of 2009 Less Than A Year (3): Semion Mogilveich, Eduardo "Tablas" Ravelo, Jose Luis "Smiley" Saenz One To Four Years (2): Jason Derek Brown, Alexis Flores Five To Nine Years (1): Robert Fisher 10 To 14 Years (3): James "Whitey" Bulger, Osama Bin Laden, Glen Godwin 20 To 29 Years (1): Victor Gerena en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FBI_Ten_Most_Wanted_Fugitives,_2000s So as you can see, the list is becoming slightly less successful. At the end of the 1970s and 1980s there was only one fugitive on the list that was on there for at least 10 years. The end of the 1990s had three fugitives on there for at least 10 years and that increased to four fugitives at the end of the 2000s. The good news is that Bulger was captured and Bin Laden was killed in 2011, so hopefully Fisher, Brown, Flores, Mogilveich and Tablas don't remain at large at the end of 2019. Assuming Godwin and Gerena don't get removed from the list without their apprehension, then no more than two of the aformentioned five fugitives can stay on the list until 2019 to halt this trend.
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Post by Scumhunter on Jan 26, 2013 21:36:37 GMT -5
Do you know if fugitives tended to not flee to foreign countries as much in the past? That could be a reason for the slightly less success. Along with the fact that you would think it would help but the numerous media available now actually seems to make the public less aware as they have so much to keep them busy. This is why AMW has been such a godsend, even if they haven't got anyone for the FBI since Michael Registe.
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Post by HeadMarshal on Jan 26, 2013 22:49:17 GMT -5
About the international flight from justice angle, I decided to check that out and here's what I found.
1970s Additions By Country Of Apprehension (66 total)
United States: 59 Canada: 3 Bahamas: 1 Removed: 3
1980s (57 Total Additions)
United States: 50 Removed: 2 Mexico: 2 Canada: 1 Colombia: 1 Still On The List: 1
1990s (28 Total Additions)
United States: 16 (I'm counting Angel Maturino Resendiz since he surrendered to American authorities on the Ciudad Juarez/El Paso border) Mexico: 4 Pakistan: 3 Netherlands: 2 Guatemala: 1 France: 1 Vietnam: 1 Still On The List: 1
2000s (35 Fugitives Total)
United States: 16 Mexico: 9 Still On The List: 7 Canada: 1 Colonialized Caribbean Island: 1 (Michael Registe In St. Marten) Colombia: 1 Thailand: 1 Jamaica: 1 Venezuela: 1
2010s (3 Fugitives Total So Far)
Still On The List: 2 United States: 1
So for the 2000s, if you only count the apprehended fugitives then only 16 out of 28 of them were caught in the United States. Mexico has been creeping up as a prime Top Ten fugitive destination with no signs of fugitives not fleeing there.
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Post by King Of Clubs on Aug 7, 2015 20:14:50 GMT -5
Could it also be that detectives may not be as good as they used to be? I actually think that all this technology these days makes cops not be able to think on their feet as well.
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Post by Scumhunter on Aug 8, 2015 0:22:55 GMT -5
I don't think that's really an issue. There's still a few old fugitive cases unsolved as well. Perhaps today's Detectives don't have to be as "old-school" but there is more at their fingertips to help them solve cases- and in fugitive cases- the FBI has been arresting a few cold case fugitives because of new facial recognition technology.
One can say today's Detectives have an advantage and don't have to use old-school methods as much thanks to advances in technology, but another key to being a good Detective is taking advantage of the resources available to you- looking for DNA evidence, video camera evidence and seeing if any advances in technology can help make the DNA evidence more precise, the video more focused, etc.
I still maintain it's a lot of fugitives fleeing overseas in addition to the average potential tipster (the viewing public) being distracted by there being too much media at their disposal now.
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Post by pakman on Aug 9, 2015 0:00:58 GMT -5
I think one of the issues is that the FBI has just been adding fugitives known to be difficult to find. Gerena and Godwin have been on the list for years. Bishop, Urbina and Said had been long-running fugitives even before they were added to the list. Flores was added pretty much as soon as he was id'd as Iriana DeJesus' killer, but he hadn't been seen in years following his deportation. Ravelo has a powerful gang to protect him and Mogilevich is pretty much hiding in plain sight in a country that won't send him back. Fisher and Brown are honestly the only two on the current list I'm surprised haven't been caught.
2006-2009 were some of the best years for the list because they kept adding "recent" fugitives. Michael Astorga was added pretty much the day after he shot and killed the New Mexico sheriff's deputy. Warren Jeffs received a ton of publicity following his addition and both Bucky Phillips and John Parsons were recent prison escapees. Likewise, Registe was wanted for a recent crime, a solid tip came in on Shauntay Henderson before she'd even been added to the list (she only spent about 3-4 hours on the list) and Schillaci and Harper were longtime child molestation suspects that the FBI apparently had developed new intelligence on.
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Post by Scumhunter on Aug 10, 2015 18:36:39 GMT -5
Great points. And yeah even in today's modern era, besides Brown and Fisher, most of the recent additions whose crimes were within five years in recent memory (Jose Saenz (crimes stretched over a decade but was also wanted for a recent murder) Eric Toth (I think), Edwin Rivera Gracias, Juan Elias Garcia, etc..) have now been caught.
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Post by HeadMarshal on Sept 5, 2015 17:24:19 GMT -5
Still hoping that in these last four months of the year that we'll see at least one Top Ten capture.
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Post by Scumhunter on Sept 5, 2015 17:25:55 GMT -5
I feel like I jinxed it with the "Next Top 10 capture in 2015" thread LOL.
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Post by Scumhunter on Nov 1, 2015 16:56:27 GMT -5
Question, does anyone know when the last year was that not a single member of the FBI's top 10 list was caught? We seem to be getting to that point this year. I think this is why as much as I love The Hunt- and Crime Watch Daily is doing a decent job but isn't entirely an unsolved case show- a weekly fugitive show like AMW is still needed.
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Post by HeadMarshal on Nov 1, 2015 17:22:52 GMT -5
Question, does anyone know when the last year was that not a single member of the FBI's top 10 list was caught? We seem to be getting to that point this year. I think this is why as much as I love The Hunt- and Crime Watch Daily is doing a decent job but isn't entirely an unsolved case show- a weekly fugitive show like AMW is still needed. I checked and it appears to be that 2010 was the last year where no FBI Most Wanted fugitives were located.
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Post by Scumhunter on Nov 1, 2015 17:23:48 GMT -5
Oh wow, I wouldn't think it would be that recent, although, interestingly enough, 2010 is the year AMW cut back on the amount of fugitives it did per episode. Although I think 2011, with the captures of Osama Bin Laden and Whitey Bulger, did make up for no captures in 2010. Just a feeling people will agree.
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Post by Scumhunter on Nov 1, 2015 17:29:23 GMT -5
Another thing I'd like to know is longest drought between FBI top 10 captures, but I'm not going to make HeadMarshal or anyone else go crazy looking for that. Just if anyone happened to know off-hand, I'd be interested in learning what it was.
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Post by тσρтєиhυитєя on Jan 28, 2016 20:18:25 GMT -5
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Post by Scumhunter on Jan 28, 2016 20:30:37 GMT -5
I think the FBI has on occasion added an additional fugitive to the top 10 such as breaking news cases. Yeah they had a great record. It's really the past two or three years (post-AMW years) where things seem to have slowed down a tiny bit. I feel based on law of averages, we should see at least one long-timer captured this year. Hopefully as a result of The Hunt.
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